Five-second answer: this cannot prove that Nagano literally draws faster when a story gets dangerous. It can test a narrower and observable claim: public posting intervals sometimes become unusually dense during ominous long arcs and climaxes. That is enough to build an unofficial “Chiikawa Danger Index” that compares the current posting pace with Chiikawa’s own history.
🍣. Another 🍣 the next day. Then another update. A Chiikawa reader eventually stops thinking “sushi” and starts thinking, “Why is Nagano posting this fast?”
The historical pattern is real enough to investigate. Near the end of the Siren arc in November 2023, public archives show posting streaks on Nov. 5–9, Nov. 13–18, and Nov. 21–26. The opening of Parallel World in March 2024 had posts every day from March 1 through March 8, with two entries on March 8. This demonstrates faster publication, not necessarily faster drawing; pages may have been prepared in advance.
The base index uses three features: posts during the latest 3 days, posts during the latest 7 days, and the current consecutive-day posting streak. Each is converted into an empirical historical percentile with default weights of 35%, 45%, and 20%. Repeated short markers such as 🍣🍣 add a deliberately non-scientific joke bonus of +5 per additional repeat, capped at +15.
Default bands are below 55 normal, 55–69 accelerating, 70–84 alert, and 85+ very fast.
Cost and pay-per-use design
As of September 3, 2026, X lists Post Read at $0.005 per returned Post, Counts: All at $0.010 per request, ordinary Content Create at $0.015, and Content Create with a URL at $0.200. Prices can change, so re-check official pricing before running the bot.
Historical analysis uses Post Counts rather than downloading thousands of Post bodies. Full-archive Counts are paginated in 31-day windows, so Jan. 1, 2020 through Sep. 3, 2026 is roughly 79 requests, or about $0.79 at the current Counts: All price. Live monitoring uses since_id so only newly published Posts are returned. The default also avoids source URLs in bot posts because URL-containing writes are currently much more expensive.
Zero-to-one installation
You need a Windows or macOS PC, an X account and Developer App, a GitHub account for 24/7 execution, and Python. Local Git is optional.
On Windows, install Python from the official site, open PowerShell, verify py --version, create a chiikawa-danger-bot folder, and save the seven files from the shared appendix with the exact filenames. Make sure Notepad does not silently create bot.py.txt.
On macOS, install Python, open Terminal, verify python3 --version, create the same folder, and save the seven files using VS Code, a plain-text editor, or nano.
In X Developer Console at console.x.com, create an App. You need a Bearer Token for reads and, for this OAuth 1.0a posting example, API Key/Secret plus Access Token/Secret. App permissions must be Read and write. If you change permissions from Read only, regenerate the Access Token and Secret afterwards. Never commit real credentials.
Create the local environment on Windows:
py -m venv .venv
.\.venv\Scripts\python.exe -m pip install -r requirements.txt
mkdir data
copy danger_periods.example.csv data\danger_periods.csv
copy .env.example .env
notepad .env
On macOS:
python3 -m venv .venv
./.venv/bin/python -m pip install -r requirements.txt
mkdir -p data
cp danger_periods.example.csv data/danger_periods.csv
cp .env.example .env
nano .env
Put the real Bearer Token into .env, then run history_analysis.py. A successful run creates data/history_features.csv, the historical baseline. The example danger-period CSV contains the late Siren period and the opening Parallel World period as manual hypothesis labels, not ground truth.
Then add the four OAuth 1.0a write credentials but keep BOT_DRY_RUN=1. Run bot.py. The first run intentionally bootstraps recent state and never posts.
For GitHub Actions, upload the code files plus data/history_features.csv, but never .env. Under Settings → Secrets and variables → Actions, add the five credentials as Repository secrets. Create .github/workflows/chiikawa-danger.yml from the shared appendix and keep BOT_DRY_RUN: "1" until a manual workflow run succeeds. Only then change it to "0".
Keep POST_MODE: "alert" initially so the bot posts only when the warning band rises. every posts for each new detected source Post and therefore increases noise and cost.
X automation rules still apply: clearly label the account as an unofficial fan bot, use the automated account label, link it to a human-managed account as required by X’s labeling system, and do not imitate the official account. The index says nothing certain about the author’s health, actual drawing speed, work conditions, or future plot.
The final system is intentionally absurd but functional: Nagano posts rapidly → Python says “time-series anomaly” → readers say “run.”
